Current wisdom certainly thinks so. Here’s an example from the editor of The National Review, the major conservative magazine which opposed his nomination in 2016. The main flaw in this reasoning is that a competitor must run to the left of Donald Trump because he has governed so conservative.
Here are three major issues which an opponent can run on and why they can be winning issues in the Republican primaries.
During and after his Helsinki Summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Trump brushed aside concerns about Russian sabotage in the American elections of 2016. In his joint press conference with President Putin he said he trusted Mr. Putin’s denials. In the uproar that followed on his return, he partially reversed his stance on this matter.
An opponent could proclaim his policy of protecting America as a matter of basic principle, not as just an act of PR damage control.
Why this matters. Conservatives have been concerned about Russian sabotage since even before the McCarthy era. Over the decades, some concerns about the Russian threat has proven to be valid. There are other countries have been threats, such as Communist China, hostile Middle Eastern countries, and others These concerns are still there.
Donald Trump’s hush money payments before and after the 2016 election are probably not criminal but that does not mean that they are okay, either. While he denies the affairs with the porn stars, the hush money payments still smell.
An opponent could present himself with President Trump’s good policies and his fighting spirit (that Republicans admire) without Mr. Trumps negative baggage. A newer, better Trumpian Administration, if you will.
Why this matters. Republicans are concerned with traditional moral values and the moral example that the President sets. There is a latent uncomfortable feeling about all of these personal scandals that an opponent could activate.
When the annual deficit crossed $1 trillion in 2009, this caused so much concern that the Tea Party began. This remained a core conservative concern throughout the Obama years. Now it is over $1 trillion again but this time under President Trump. On a substantive level, the federal government finances are not sustainable. Donald Trump’s business career was noted for his disdain for incurring debt
An opponent could call for debt reduction by reduced spending. He could attack Mr. Trump’s history on indebtedness and make the case that he has not really tried to reduce the national deficit as President
Why this matters. Reducing both government spending and the federal deficit has been a core Republican concern since at least the Roosevelt Administration. Donald Trump’s own business history as both management and his public statements on the subjects negates the excuse that he had to get along with Congress.
These issues cannot be exploited by just any candidate. A successful opponent will have to have a defensible record on all three of these fronts. A moderate or worse, a liberal, who will endanger the policies that President Trump has implemented that conservatives like will just have too much counter-concerns to make headway. A successful anti-Trump primary campaign theme will have to be based on keeping the good while eliminating the bad. All of this means that a viable opponent must be a conservative with no personal scandals.
In short, the way to beat Trump in the Republican primaries is to promise a newer, better Trump Administration.
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